THE STRATEGIC ROLE OF CORPORATE ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE IN TIMES OF CRISIS: ANALYSIS OF VOLATILITY IN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN SELECTED ASIAN COUNTRIES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64734/bjss.1-1-09Keywords:
Economic intelligence, volatility, global crises, economic-political analysis, ARCHAbstract
In the 21st century, the interaction between national and international stakeholders has intensified under the influence of globalization and the neoliberal economic order; this process has accelerated the formation of a new knowledge-based macroeconomic structure and system of relationships. Data and information management has become a decisive factor in harmonizing the preferences, priorities, roles, and functions of stakeholders. This harmonization process has largely begun to be carried out through economic intelligence activities. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of these systems on growth performance and macroeconomic stability by examining the differences in macroeconomic performance and volatility structures during crisis periods between countries in the Asian region that have and do not have institutional economic intelligence systems. As a method, the performance of the relevant country groups during crisis periods was evaluated using comparative static analysis; in particular, the volatility structure related to exchange rates and stock market indices was examined using ARCH family models, and annual trends were analyzed. The findings reveal that countries with institutional economic intelligence systems are able to integrate stakeholder interests on common ground, enabling them to move away from volatile macroeconomic conditions and achieve sustainable growth performance. It is estimated that this integration is possible through the effective regulation of areas of economic vulnerability. The original value of the study lies in demonstrating that countries with institutional economic intelligence systems possess a type of early warning mechanism thanks to their capacity to analyze pre-crisis conditions, and that this mechanism contributes to the formation of a more stable macroeconomic structure during crisis and recovery processes.
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